The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.

Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.

'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'

'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'

The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.

'More investors now view the stock market as a valuable opportunity, though many still seek quick gains, leading to a rise in futures and options trading.'

The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.

'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'

Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.

'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'

India topped the APAC region with 227 transactions in the first eight months of CY24. The US was second with 133 deals while China ranked third with 69 transactions.

'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'

'Subject to any worldwide economic collapse.'

Had you invested Rs 10,000 each in JSW Steel, Titan Company and Bajaj Finance 20 years ago, when they were just penny stocks (trading below Rs 10), you would have become a millionaire by now.

'Volumes in F&O trading had gone up rapidly and, in a way, the increase in STT on F&O will protect investor interest.'

Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.

Despite the rally in equities over the last few years, India, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is still in early stages of an equity cult. Any changes to the capital gains tax for equities - both long-term and short-term - in Budget 2024 scheduled to be announced on July 23, he believes, can trigger a bigger correction that what the markets witnessed post the Lok Sabha election outcome on June 4 that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose majority, though it was able to form the government with the help of coalition partners.

An average Indian couple spends around 2x on weddings versus education (pre-primary to graduation).

'Though one cannot paint the entire microcap basket with the same brush, investors need to be careful now as to what they're buying.'

'We are confident that over the next few years the government will strike a fine balance between populist measures and growth, and manage coalition partners well.'